Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
