Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
